Baked bunnies, couple selfies, and video-call gardening Visual communication in couple relationships during COVID-19

The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has had manifold societal implications. This paper reflects on the role of visual communication for maintaining relationship stability in couple relationships during the first wave of the pandemic, which we understand as a circumstantial turning point. The analysis is based on qualitative interviews with couples before, during, and after the first wave of COVID-19 in Switzerland, complemented by creative visual methods, follow-up surveys, and video calls. Our results show that visual practices are embedded in rather stable communication repertoires of couples during their relationship maintenance phase. Our study also points to the simultaneous use of a variety of visual practices, which led to a high "visual saturation". These visual practices were found to contribute to relationship stability by reinforcing intimacy, a key factor in couple relationships, thereby shielding the relationships from circumstantial change. © 2023 The Author(s).

"I'll never sacrifice my well-being again:" The journey from negative to positive body image among women who perceive their body to deviate from societal norms.

We conducted one-on-one interviews with 25 Canadian cisgender women who self-identified as having (a) a condition or characteristic causing their body to deviate from societal norms and (b) overcome a negative body image to develop a positive body image. Using coding reliability thematic analyses, we identified 12 themes (italicised) involving processes and experiences associated with shifts in body image. Women had moments that sparked and confirmed the importance of building positive body image (Enough is Enough). They experienced accepting Social Connections and Community and Accessed Critical Knowledge conducive to body positivity. They engaged in Joyful Movement, Adaptive Appearance Investment, and Joyful and Intuitive Eating. They identified how Changing Societal Norms, Becoming Older and Wiser, COVID-19 Pandemic, having Illnesses and Medical Conditions, Pregnancy and Motherhood, and Spirituality, Religion, and Nature affected their body image, values, and valued action. As women engaged in these processes and experiences, shifts occurred in their perceptions of their embodied selves in the world, represented by four "Bigger Lessons:" I Am More Than My Looks, I Am More Than My Body, I am More Than My Self, and I am Inherently Worthy of Love, Respect, and Joy. These findings can inform body image programmes and clinical interventions.

Predictive Model for National Minimal CFR during Spontaneous Initial Outbreak of Emerging Infectious Disease: Lessons from COVID-19 Pandemic in 214 Nations and Regions.

The minimal case fatality rate (CFR) is one of the essential fundaments for the establishment of a diverse national response strategy against the COVID-19 epidemic, but cannot be quantitatively predicted. The aim of the present study was to explore the applicable quantitative parameters labeling integrating responding capacity from national daily CFR curves, and whether the minimal CFR during initial emerging epidemic outbreaks can be predicted. We analyzed data from 214 nations and regions during the initial 2020 COVID-19 epidemic and found similar falling zones marked with two turning points within a fitting three-day-moving CFR curve which occurred for many nations and regions. The turning points can be quantified with parameters for the day duration (T1, T2, and ΔT) and for the three-day moving arithmetic average CFRs (CFR1, CFR2, and ΔCFR) under wave theory for 71 nations and regions after screening. Two prediction models of minimal CFR were established with multiple linear regressions (M1) and multi-order curve regressions (M2) after internal and external evaluation. Three kinds of falling zones could be classified in the other 71 nations and regions. Only the minimal CFR showed significant correlations with nine independent national indicators in 65 nations and regions with CFRs less than 7%. Model M1 showed that logarithmic population, births per 1000 people, and household size made significant positive contributions, and logarithmic GDP, percentage of population aged 65+ years, domestic general government health expenditure, physicians per 1000 people, nurses per 1000 people, and body mass index made negative contributions to the minimal CFR against COVID-19 epidemics for most nations and regions. The spontaneous minimal CFR was predicted well with model M1 for 57 nations and regions based on the nine national indicators (R2 = 0.5074), or with model M2 for 59 nations and regions based on the nine national indicators (R2 = 0.8008) at internal evaluation. The study confirmed that national spontaneous minimal CFR could be predicted with models successfully for most nations and regions against COVID-19 epidemics, which provides a critical method to predict the essential early evidence to evaluate the integrating responding capacity and establish national responding strategies reasonably for other emerging infectious diseases in the future.

Mortality in Four Waves of COVID-19 Is Differently Associated with Healthcare Capacities Affected by Economic Disparities.

BACKGROUND: The greatest challenges are imposed on the overall capacity of disease management when the cases reach the maximum in each wave of the pandemic. METHODS: The cases and deaths for the four waves of COVID-19 in 119 countries and regions (CRs) were collected. We compared the mortality across CRs where populations experience different economic and healthcare disparities. FINDINGS: Among 119 CRs, 117, 112, 111, and 55 have experienced 1, 2, 3, and 4 waves of COVID-19 disease, respectively. The average mortality rates at the disease turning point were 0.036, 0.019. 0.017, and 0.015 for the waves 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Among 49 potential factors, income level, gross national income (GNI) per capita, and school enrollment are positively correlated with the mortality rates in the first wave, but negatively correlated with the rates of the rest of the waves. Their values for the first wave are 0.253, 0.346 and 0.385, respectively. The r value for waves 2, 3, and 4 are -0.310, -0.293, -0.234; -0.263, -0.284, -0.282; and -0.330, -0.394, -0.048, respectively. In high-income CRs, the mortality rates in waves 2 and 3 were 29% and 28% of that in wave 1; while in upper-middle-income CRs, the rates for waves 2 and 3 were 76% and 79% of that in wave 1. The rates in waves 2 and 3 for lower-middle-income countries were 88% and 89% of that in wave 1, and for low-income countries were 135% and 135%. Furthermore, comparison among the largest case numbers through all waves indicated that the mortalities in upper- and lower-middle-income countries is 65% more than that of the high-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Conclusions from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic do not apply to the following waves. The clinical outcomes in developing countries become worse along with the expansion of the pandemic.

Retail After COVID-19: Use Virtual Reality to Enhance Ecommerce

Virtual reality (VR) shopping can be a new turning point for shopping. The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many consumers to shop online and there has been an increasing demand for an interactive and entertaining online shopping platform. This article proposes a UX design model for virtual shopping, which can be an alternative to in-store retails during and after the pandemic. Our UX design model for virtual shopping focuses on two aspects that make shopping entertaining rather than laborious: psychological stimulation and social shopping. Even after many states eased lockdown measures in August, retail sales recovery has been slow at 0.6%. Some might expect revenues will recover after the pandemic eases, however, the impact of the pandemic on consumption is likely to be long-lasting. The time to act is now. Managers might implement solutions to innovate digital sales platforms and improve shopping-buying conversions in eCommerce. © 2022 IEEE.

Variations of COVID-19 mortality are affected by economic disparities across countries.

BACKGROUND: When the COVID-19 case number reaches a maximum in a country, its capacity and management of health system face greatest challenge. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study on data of turning points for cases and deaths for the first three waves of COVID-19 in countries with more than 5000 cumulative cases, as reported by Worldometers and WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard. We compared the case fatality rates (CFRs) and time lags (in unit of day) between the turning points of cases and deaths among countries in different development stages and potential influence factors. As of May 10, 2021, 106 out of 222 countries or regions (56%) reported more than 5000 cases. Approximately half of them have experienced all the three waves of COVID-19 disease. The average mortality rate at the disease turning point was 0.038 for the first wave, 0.020 for the second wave, and 0.023 for wave 3. In high-income countries, the mortality rates during the first wave are higher than that of the other income levels. However, the mortality rates during the second and third waves of COVID-19 were much lower than those of the first wave, with a significant reduction from 5.7% to 1.7% approximately 70%. At the same time, high-income countries exhibited a 2-fold increase in time lags during the second and the third waves compared to the first wave, suggesting that the periods between the cases and deaths turning point extended. High rates in the first wave in developed countries are associated to multiple factors including transportation, population density, and aging populations. In upper middle- and lower middle-income countries, the decreasing of mortality rates in the second and third waves were subtle or even reversed, with increased mortality during the following waves. In the upper and lower middle-income countries, the time lags were about 50% of the durations observed from high-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Economy and medical resources affect the efficiency of COVID-19 mitigation and the clinical outcomes of the patients. The situation is likely to become even worse in the light of these countries' limited ability to combat COVID-19 and prevent severe outcomes or deaths as the new variant transmission becomes dominant.

The Eurostat business cycle clock and the pandemic: Some considerations

To face the increasing information need for measuring and monitoring economic and social phenomena, such as the impact of the pandemic, a number of dashboards have been published by national and international organisation. However, it can be hard to extract key signals from numerous indicators, and users could prefer concise messages. This was the aim for the development of the business cycle clock (BCC). This paper presents the BCC, the Eurostat online tool showing the recent cyclical situation of the economy, and how the BCC cyclical indicators have performed during the pandemic. We introduce some considerations about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic first on the input variables and then on the BCC cyclical indicators, focusing on different challenges, such as values several standard deviations away from usual ones. Finally, we focus on the recent output of the BCC cyclical indicators during the pandemic. According to the indications of the BCC for the fourth quarter of 2021, the euro area economy remained in a a stable expansionary' phase, although with decelerating growth. The euro area exited a recessionary phase in August 2020. The clock indicates that the risk of another slowdown or recession is very low at this stage in 2022. © 2022 European Union-licensed to IOS Press.

Improving Prediction Accuracy of Covid-19 Data Analysis

Since early 2020 Covid-19 has casted great shadow to everyone worldwide. Due to large number of infected and death cases, accurate predictions can help the government and medical divisions in pandemic preparedness and prevention. In this paper, we used the Prophet machine learning model to analyze the historical data of the past year to predict the future trend of confirmed, death, recovered total cases. To improve the prediction accuracy, we optimized the data by detecting "turning points"of confirmed cases and then redo predictions. From the result comparison of predictions using original data vs. optimized data it is shown that our optimization improves the prediction accuracy significantly. © 2021 ACM.

STUDY ON IMPACTS OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC RECESSION BASED ON MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

We analyse the economic impact of the economic recession caused by the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic by estimating the amplitude, duration and scope of influence of the recession. We employ the turning point method to extract the characteristics of the historical recessions since 1980 in 153 countries and use the information to obtain the distribution characteristics of the GDP growth rate in these countries during the current pandemic-induced recession with Monte Carlo simulation. We then make judgment on the scope of influence of this pandemic-induced recession by investigating the co-movement relationship between the historical recessions in the 153 countries. The results show that this pandemic-induced recession is likely to be a severe global recession. The mean of the average simulated Delta GDP of the 153 countries will plunge into a trough at -1.16% in 2020 with a recession amplitude of approximately 4.50% and recover to the pre-crisis level of 3.29% in 2023.